Don't Fall For It

(Photo by Ann Scipione)

by  E.J. Freeman | MCLA.us

ATLANTA, Georgia - We're getting deeper into Fall and more and more MCLA teams are playing in scrimmages. It’s tempting to analyze those fall scrimmage scores and make sweeping assumptions about teams and programs — but don’t fall into that trap. There are countless factors in fall scrimmages that can affect outcomes and are impossible to know from the outside. Perhaps the two teams approached substitutions differently: one played its entire roster, while the other primarily used its starters. Maybe one team ran a zone defense or a ten-man ride, and the opponent hadn’t yet practiced their counters to those schemes. Some players might have minor injuries that wouldn’t keep them out of a regular-season game but aren’t worth the risk in the fall. Or maybe one team is still developing a new identity that hasn’t yet taken shape.

Fall scrimmages can certainly be illuminating for coaching staffs and those within a program, but context is crucial if you hope to take any useful information from them. Simply looking at the score and drawing conclusions is unlikely to make you look like Nostradamus come spring.

It seems to happen every fall: a score comes out and draws attention, only for the result to prove meaningless in the end. Many years ago, I was in attendance when Division III Salisbury defeated Duke in a scrimmage. The result had the LaxPower forums buzzing, but both teams went on to have fairly typical seasons that year.

This phenomenon isn’t limited to the varsity world. Just last fall, several MCLA teams that would later meet in the regular season faced off in scrimmages. Two that come to mind right away are Florida State vs. Florida and Virginia Tech vs. Liberty — heated rivalries that feature not only spring matchups but annual fall meetings as well.

Let’s start in the Sunshine State. The Gators traveled to Tallahassee for a fall scrimmage after an offseason talent infusion that generated plenty of hype. This was a rare fall scrimmage that was live-streamed, and many across the MCLA tuned in to get a glimpse of the new-look Gators. The Seminoles, however, had other ideas. They controlled the game throughout and looked like the better team in a convincing win. Fast forward to spring: the teams met twice within two weeks. The Gators won the regular-season matchup 21–14, then defeated the Seminoles again in the SouthEastern Lacrosse Conference semifinals, 15–14.

The story in the Commonwealth was similar — with some key differences. Most notably, the Flames and Hokies played their regular-season game in early February rather than April, leaving even less time between the scrimmage and the rematch. In the fall scrimmage, Liberty was dominant, controlling possession and the pace en route to a convincing victory. How much can possibly change between late October and early February?  Apparently,  quite a lot. The Hokies won the regular-season game 16–12, handing the Flames the only loss on their national championship campaign.

There’s plenty to learn from fall scrimmages, but the final score isn’t the best teacher. I know it’s tempting — but don’t fall for it.