Preview: Clinching Season

Photo by Robert White

 By: E.J. Freeman | MCLA.us  

ATLANTA- As we slide into late April it is now crunch time.  Some conference tournaments are set while other conferences still have regular season games with tournament implications this weekend.  Two leagues will be crowning champions this weekend.  For today’s column we will break down where things stand for each conference coming into the weekend.  We will also venture into some bracketology for each conference.   NOTE: the bracketology is just one man's opinion

Division I

Atlantic Lacrosse Conference

The field looks to be set with Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Clemson and Liberty in that order.  However, if Kentucky upsets Liberty and West Virginia upsets Virginia Tech there could be a change in the fourth spot.  Those upsets certainly could happen, but it feels as though we will have the four ranked ALC teams duking it out in Lynchburg next weekend.

Richmond?

Likely In: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Tennessee are all in the top ten and have good wins and are likely in the field.

Bubble: Liberty is still clinging to hope, but I think they will need to upset the Hokies in round one of the ALC tournament to have any sort of realistic chance.

Continental Lacrosse Conference

Temple and Pittsburgh have locked up the top two spots in the CLC West and as such will both be in the tournament.  They play this weekend and the winner will be the top seed and the loser second. 

In the North the picture is a little murkier.  Northeastern is in good shape with wins over New Hampshire and Connecticut, but can lock up the top seed with a win over Boston College on Saturday.  Boston College plays New Hampshire on Friday and if they win that game they will be locked into a tournament spot.  If New Hampshire wins on Friday and Boston College wins on Saturday we will head into three way tie territory; the scenarios are too murky to break down until we have a score of Friday’s game.

Richmond?

This looks like a one bid league to me.  If Boston College loses either game this weekend or during the CLC tournament that is a loss to an unranked team.  Pairing that with their only ranked win coming against Texas way back in February would lead to an uncomfortable waiting game for the Eagles if they lose any of their remaining games.

Lone Star Alliance

The tournament field is set and things get started on Friday with four quarterfinal games as the league descends on Melissa, Texas.  The bracket is available here.  Representing the South we have Texas, Southern Methodist, Texas A&M, and Texas Christian in that order.  From the North we have Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss.  Kansas has only one loss and Texas Christian has been on a skid so that game will be interesting; other than that a southern sweep would be the expected outcome here.  To win the tournament a team has to win three games in less than 48 hours, which is a test of endurance and will as much as anything else.

Richmond?

This looks like another one bid league.  The LSA has never gotten n at-large bid in the past in Division I and I would be surprised to see that streak end.  Texas may have had a chance, but the loss to LSU really hurts their case.  The good news for the tournament teams is that the tournament looks to be wide open.

Pacific Northwest Collegiate Lacrosse Leage

The four teams are locked with Oregon, Simon Fraser, Boise State, and Washington punching their tickets but seeding is still fluid.  If Washington beats Simon Fraser this weekend we could have a three way tie for second place, but it would not change the participants.  If Oregon State beats Oregon it will not be enough to overcome their early losses and sneak into the field.

Richmond?

Oregon currently sits at #14 and is unlikely to grab the kinds of wins that would improve their resume at this point since no one else in the league is ranked.  The Ducks, Red Leafs, Broncos, and Huskies will all need to win the tournament to make the trip to Richmond.

Rocky Mountain Lacrosse Conference

Utah Valley is locked in as the top seed even if they lose to Utah this weekend.  Brigham Young with their win over Utah clinched the second seed.  The winner of the game between Colorado and Colorado State will get the third seed and the loser will take the four seed.  The four teams will meet and reprise their round robin from last weekend. 

Richmond?

Likely in: Utah Valley and Brigham Young are locks and are likely top four seeds no matter what happens next weekend. 

Bubble: Colorado is holding onto hope, but I think they have too many losses to other bubble teams that will hurt them.  They can make the conversation interesting if they get a win against either Brigham Young or Utah Valley in the RMLC tournament.

AQ or bust: Colorado State can play spoiler, but without winning the RMLC tournament will not be making the trip to Richmond.

SouthEastern Lacrosse Conference

The tournament started last weekend with the quarterfinals.  Florida State and Georgia advanced.  There will be four ranked teams meeting in Jacksonville with their eyes on the SELC Championship.  South Carolina and Florida State will play in one semifinal while Georgia and Auburn will play in the other.

Richmond?

Likely in: Florida State and South Carolina should both feel pretty good. 

Bubble: Auburn and Georgia are both on the bubble at the moment.  The winner of their game probably moves into the likely in category while the loser sweats it out for a week.

Southwestern Lacrosse Conference

The field is set with Arizona and Arizona State locked into the one and four seeds as they play their rivalry game this weekend and then do it again next week.  Chapman and San Diego State play this weekend with the winner locking up the two seed and the loser taking the three seed setting up a rematch next week.

Richmond?

Likely in: Arizona is likely in right now, but a loss to Arizona State in either game likely sends them to the bubble. 

Bubble: San Diego State and Chapman are both squarely on the bubble.  San Diego State has a better case right now, but the back to back games will be interesting for both cases. If they split does that move the needle enough for either team?  Chapman probably needs to win both games with the Aztecs to stay in the conversation.  San Diego State might be able to survive a split, but it would get dicey.

AQ or bust: The Sun Devils are mostly playing spoiler here.  They are certainly talented enough to go on a run and take the SLC AQ though.

Upper Midwest Lacrosse Conference

The field is set with Miami (OH), Michigan State, Minnesota, and Purdue.  Minnesota and Purdue will play this weekend to determine seeding for the West Region. 

Richmond?

This is a one bid league so it is AQ or bust for everyone.

Western Collegiate Lacrosse League

The tournament starts this weekend with quarterfinals on campus before moving to Los Gatos High School next week.  On Thursday Cal beat Nevada 15-6 to advance to  next week’s semifinals.  On Sunday Sonoma State will host Santa Clara with the winner facing the top seed UC Santa Barbara. 

Richmond?

Likely in: UC Santa Barbara has a top ten ranking and is most likely in good shape, but a loss in the semifinals would make the Gauchos feel the crunch.

AQ or bust: The rest of the league looks to be AQ or bust.  Cal Poly and Cal are ranked 18th and 16th  respectively, but without winning the league would not add a win that would really pad the resume. 

Division II

Atlantic Lacrosse Conference

The tournament field is set with quarterfinals happening this weekend.  William and Mary will host East Carolina with the winner advancing to play UNC-Wilmington.  Coastal Carolina will host UNC-Charlotte with the winner advancing to play Wake Forest.

Richmond?

Likely in: UNC-Wilmington and Coastal Carolina look like they will be in the field assuming Coastal wins this weekend. 

Bubble: Wake Forest is on the bubble with potential to move into the field and trade spots with Coastal Carolina if they beat them in the semifinals.

AQ or bust: William and Mary, UNC-Charlotte, and East Carolina all need the AQ to make the short trip to Richmond

Continental Lacrosse Conference

Maine, Columbia, and Bridgewater State are all locked into the conference tournament.  Rhode Island has games against Columbia and Southern Connecticut this week, a win in either game will clinch a tournament spot, but the Rams will be favorites in both games and if they win both they will take the top seed in the South.  Bridgewater State beat Stonehill on Thursday taking the second seed in the North.

Richmond?

Likely in: Rhode Island is probably in as of now, but if they lose they drop to the bubble.

The rest of the league is AQ or bust.

Lone Star Alliance

The tournament field is set and they will determine their champion this weekend.  From the North we have Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Drury, and Missouri State.  The South is represented by Texas Tech, Rice, Texas State, and Houston.  The bracket is available here.  Just like Division I, the winner of the league will win three games in less than 48 hours.

Richmond?

This league is AQ or bust for everyone.  Despite Texas Tech’s strong year they will need the AQ to make their way to Richmond.

Pacific Northwest Collegiate Lacrosse League

The field is set with Montana playing Western Oregon and College of Idaho playing Western Washington.

Richmond?

Likely in: Montana and College of Idaho look good for Richmond

AQ or bust: Western Oregon and Western Washington will need to go on a run to the AQ to get in.

Rocky Mountain Lacrosse Conference

The field is set with Montana State and Utah State from the Northwest and Air Force and Denver from the Southeast.

Richmond?

Likely in: Montana State and Air Force look good.

AQ of bust: Utah State and Denver will need the AQ.

SouthEastern Lacrosse Conference

The field is set with the quarterfinals between Florida Atlantic and Kennesaw State on Friday with the winner playing North Florida.  On the other side Georgia Southern will play Florida Gulf Coast for the right to play Tampa in the semifinals.   In a fun twist the quarterfinals match up two parliaments of owls against one another and two convocations of eagles against each other.  Does Tampa feel left out as the Spartans are the only non-bird mascot in the field?

Richmond?

Likely in: In an odd situation the second seed in the South, Florida Atlantic, is ranked ahead of the one seed, Tampa.  Florida Atlantic looks secure for Richmond despite Tampa having the win over the Owls.  

Bubble: Georgia Southern and North Florida are on the bubble and can work their way into the field with another quality win.  Tampa looks to be on the bubble, but likely in the tournament field; a revenge win against Georgia Southern (assuming they beat Florida Gulf Coast) would be helpful though.

AQ or bust: Florida Gulf Coast and Kennesaw State need to win the tournament to make it to Richmond.

Southwest Lacrosse Conference

The teams are set, but seeding can change.  The teams will be Cal State San Marcos, UC San Diego,  Arizona Christian, and San Diego

Richmond?

Likely in: Cal State San Marcos will almost definitely be in Richmond.

Bubble: UC San Diego is on the bubble and can ease their nerves with a run to the championship game.

AQ or bust: San Diego and Arizona Christian will need to win the league to make it to Richmond.

Upper Midwest Lacrosse Conference

Grand Valley State, Central Michigan, and Dayton will represent the East.  St. Thomas has clinched a spot in the West.  The second and third spot will likely go to North Dakota State and St. John’s, but if Minnesota-Duluth beats North Dakota State we will likely be headed toward a three-way tie.

Richmond?

Likely in:  As usual St. Thomas and Grand Valley State look to be in the field.

Bubble: North Dakota State and Dayton are both ranked and have played tough schedules, but could use another quality win or two to feel good.

AQ or bust: St. John’s, Minnesota-Duluth, and Central Michigan need to win the league.

Western Collegiate Lacrosse League

The field for the tournament will be UC Davis, Chico State, San Jose State, and Saint Mary’s. 

Richmond?

The whole league is AQ or bust as this looks to be a one bid league.

Games I’ll be Watching

#19 Texas Christian vs Kansas in LSA Tournament 5pm Friday- As mentioned, Kansas has only one loss, but the Jayhawks have not played any ranked teams and their loss was to Division II Arkansas.  Texas Christian is mired in a skid having lost four of their last five games with three of those losses by significant margins.  How much confidence do the Horned Frogs have at this point?  If Kansas starts fast can the Horned Frogs avoid the “here we go again” mindset?  If TCU can find their mojo again, the tournament is winnable for them.  If Kansas can start the weekend hot they could stay hot and go on a run through the weekend. Fan Pick: TCU (52%)

#17 Chapman at #12 San Diego State 7pm Friday-  As mentioned earlier both teams could use another quality win to bolster their at-large resume.  Chapman comes into the game with a significant faceoff advantage.  Chapman has won three of the last five meetings in this series.  The last three meetings have all been close games.  Given that both teams need this game for resume purposes it is unlikely that either team will simply punt on this game to put all their eggs in the playoff game basket.  Luc Schneider leads the way for the Aztecs with 60 points whereas Chapman spreads the production out.  Neither team is scoring a ton of goals so if either team can get to 12 goals they have a good chance to win the game. The Aztecs performing the way they have while having such limited possession is really impressive.  If they can get the possession game more even they will be very dangerous in the postseason. Fan Pick: 50/50

Florida Gulf Coast vs #16 Georgia Southern in SELC Tournament 8pm Friday -  Which Eagles will reign supreme?  Florida Gulf Coast has won the last five meetings, but Georgia Southern looks to be a very different team this year.  Georgia Southern is only allowing eight goals per game which in the shot clock era is an incredibly paltry figure.  Georgia Southern handed Tampa their only Division II loss this season and a win here would give them another crack at the Spartans.  Georgia Southern is still squarely on the bubble, but a win here and another win against Tampa would give them a strong case.  Florida Gulf Coast needs to run to the SELC title to fulfill their dream of making it to Richmond. Fan Pick: 50/50

#11 Georgia vs #13 Auburn in SELC Tournament 2:30pm Saturday – This is a rematch of a February 20 game that Georgia won 13-10.  Auburn starts most games with a decided advantage in face off specialist Aidan Garrett who is winning over 70% of his faceoffs and won over 80% in the first matchup.  Georgia is led by all time leading scorer Rory Cavanaugh who is a match up nightmare. The Tigers bring a balanced offense with seven players who have totaled between 20 and 43 points.  Graham Young is a dynamic dodger for the Tigers who will put pressure on the Georgia defense.  The winner of this game is probably in solid shape for Richmond while the loser will have a long week waiting out other results and the selection committee.  Fan Pick: Georgia (52%)

UNC-Charlotte at #10 Coastal Carolina 11am Saturday – This quarterfinal game features a UNC-Charlotte a team that has been a staple at the MCLA National Championship presented by New Balance over the last few years, but has struggled this to find their usual form this season.  If the 49ers cannot find their form this weekend the search will have to continue next season.  Charlotte has been in a lot of tournament games the last few years so the moment will not be too big for their upperclassmen.  The Chanticleers have been around themselves and beat Charlotte 18-7 in the regular season.  Could the big margin lead to some overconfidence?  Both teams are dominant at the faceoff dot and whoever can win that battle will give themselves a great chance to win the game.  In the first game, Rylan Hackett won 22 of 24 faceoffs for Coastal.  Charlotte will need to significantly eat into that number if they want to have a chance.  Fan Pick: Coastal Carolina (64%)

#5 Grand Valley State at #18 Dayton 2pm Saturday – The Lakers look like they are finding their form at just the right time as they wrap up the regular season slate against Dayton.  The Flyers could use a high profile win for their resume and the confidence boost of a win over the Lakers.  A win over Grand Valley State is a tall order, but stranger things have happened.  The Lakers are averaging nearly 18 goals per game while Dayton is averaging just under 11 goals per game.  The Flyers will want to slow the game down to keep the ball away from the high powered Lakers offense.  Fan Pick: Grand Valley State (75%)

#10 Boston College at Northeastern 2pm Saturday – The Eagles are ranked in the top ten, but have only one ranked win.  They are walking a fine line in terms of their at-large chances.  They will not play another ranked team this weekend or in the CLC tournament.  Northeastern can play spoiler to their rivals from Chestnut Hill.  The Huskies are always a tough team who will relish the opportunity to spoil the Eagles’ year and will not go down easily.  Northeastern wins less than 50% of their faceoffs, which will make things difficult.  The game will largely come down to how Northeastern handles Boston College’s ten man ride.  If the Huskies are at a possession disadvantage at the faceoff dot, they cannot give Boston College extra possessions via failed clears.  Fan Pick: Northeastern (67%)

#4 Florida State vs #7 South Carolina in SELC Tournament 12pm Saturday – Both teams are likely in the field in Richmond, but a win here will help both teams with seeding.  Two of South Carolina’s three losses have come in the last few weeks as they lost to Utah Valley and Clemson.  Florida State is averaging over 18 goals per game and feeds that potent offense with a strong faceoff unit.  In their two losses the Seminoles won less than 40% of their faceoffs.  The Gamecocks do not have an elite faceoff unit, but will fight the Seminoles for every ground ball.  There is a feeling of inevitability to Tyler Morris and the Seminoles offense when they have consistent possession, but the Gamecocks have a strong defense that gives up less than nine goals per game.  In those losses the Seminoles have given up 16.5 goals per game.  The Seminole defense has been protected by the strong faceoff game and their high powered offense.  The Gamecocks will test the Seminole defense when they have the ball, but will they have the ball enough to match the Seminole offense?  Fan Pick: Florida State (62%)

Buckle up as we have reached the final weekend of the regular season and we will see our first conference champions crowned this weekend.

Head coaches send your nominations for Warrior Player of the Week and PEARL Goalie of the Week to info@mcla.us by noon on Monday.