Preview: Quick Turn Quarters

 (Photo by Lance Wendt)

by E.J. Freeman | MCLA.us

RICHMOND- After an action packed Monday half the field has been eliminated and we are on to the quarterfinals

Division II saw a string of upsets growing incrementally as the Nos. 9, 10, and 11 seeds all won their first round games.  I am not sure we can call the No. 9 seed a Cinderella, but they are all hoping the clock doesn’t strike midnight Tuesday.   We have four usual suspects in Grand Valley State, Air Force, St. Thomas, and Cal State San Marcos along with four relative newcomers in UNC-Wilmington, College of Idaho, UC San Diego, and Rhode Island. Granted Rhode Island and College of Idaho have been here before, but it has been a while.  All four time zones are represented in the Division II quarterfinals.

Division I saw all four top seeds start slow or play closer games than one would expect based on their seeds.  They all eventually woke up and advanced which is always priority one, but there were enough reasons for concern to pay attention.  Over the last several years the geographic center of power has been shifting eastward and Monday showed that trend even further.  We had four games pitting east coast teams against west coast teams and the east coast teams all won with three of them in convincing fashion.  The west coast could rise again next year, but yesterday the beasts of the east coast put on a show.

We are aware of the bad links that went out initially, apologies for that.  Working links were sent as soon as possible and were sent to all who sent emails requesting them.  The issue should now be resolved.

 Now on to today’s games.

#1 Brigham Young vs #9 Georgia 3:30pm – The Cougars were tussling with Michigan State for much longer than most people expected.  There could be a number of causes between overconfidence and looking ahead or the 8:00 am Mountain Time start, but none of that actually matters if the Cougars trip up.  Georgia had a dogfight against Arizona and it was impressive after Arizona tied it up at the end of regulation how the  Dawgs dusted themselves off and got the win.   Equally impressive was Georgia winning while only getting one goal and one assist from lead Dawg Rory Cavanaugh – it would be surprising if he is not more productive today.  Georgia has a tall task ahead of them now facing the Cougars.  If Georgia wins 12% of the faceoffs again today, they will not get the game to overtime.  You simply cannot give the Cougars that much of a possession advantage.  I would expect the Cougars to look much more like themselves today.  If they are not sharp early again, it will be cause for concern.  FAN PICK: BYU (71%)

#1 St. Thomas vs #9 UNC-Wilmington 3:30pm – The Tommies took care of business against Arkansas early and cruised the rest of the way.  This will be a bit of contrasting styles as the Tommies were playing a bruising brand of bully ball yesterday while Wilmington was using intricate cuts and crisp passing to score with ten assists on their 15 goals.  There is more than one way to skin a cat as the saying goes, contrasting styles are always fun to watch.   Luke Barnett came into yesterday’s game saving over 75% of the shots he faced, but was just over 50% yesterday in the most surprising shootout of the day.  I would not expect Barnett to have another day so far from what he has done all season.  If Wilmington can draw slides and find openings inside, they will give St. Thomas problems. Meanwhile, St. Thomas will try to run right through the Seahawks.  FAN PICK: UNC-Wilmington (62%)

#2 Utah Valley vs #7 Clemson 3:45pm – Clemson just overwhelmed UCSB on Monday and then took their foot off the gas cruising to the win.  It seems odd to raise eyebrows at a 15 goal output from Utah Valley yesterday, but they did not look especially comfortable when Oregon went to their zone defense.  The Wolverines were playing without one of their leaders in Boo Rehrer so there is a natural adjustment period to any change like that.  Oregon also took a bite out of one of Utah Valley’s biggest strengths in limiting Jacob Lundin to “only” 60% of the faceoffs.  He has been winning nearly 80% on the season.  The Tigers have a talented offense that will not be intimidated by the Wolverine pressure.  The Tigers tend to play a physical brand of man to man defense and I do not know if they have a zone in their toolbox.  It will be interesting to see if they change from who they are for this match up.  Just because the Wolverines looked uncomfortable against the zone Monday does not mean they will all week.  Georgia Tech struggled with a zone on Monday last year and then punished teams that tried to copy that formula the rest of the week.  I think this one is close, but the Wolverines find themselves again and get the win late.  FAN PICK: Utah Valley (67%)

#2 Cal State San Marcos vs #10 Rhode Island 3:45pm – Atlantic vs Pacific.  Rhode Island worked their quick strike transition offense to build a lead against Montana yesterday and then played even with them the rest of the game.  On the other side Cal State San Marcos just kept pushing against Dayton until the Flyers ran out of gas.  This game could see a lot of goals scored as these offense like to go-go-go.  The Cougars will likely have a faceoff advantage, but it looks to be minor.  As is typical of the New England teams in this tournament the Rams do not much care that the Cougars will get most of the hype and buzz going into this game.  Rhode Island is the No. 10 seed but showed yesterday that perhaps they were under seeded.  Carson Malinowski leads the way for the Cougars with 78 points and will look to keep San Marcos’ hot streak going.  The Rams will keep this one interesting, but the Cougars just have too many weapons.  FAN PICK: Cal State San Marcos (59%)

#4 Florida State vs #5 Tennessee 6:15pm – Tennessee and their army of orange clad Volunteers was impressive through the last 35 minutes of their game against Cal yesterday.  The Vols have an edge to them that helps them overwhelm teams but can come back to hurt them at times as well.  Florida State was clearly in survive and advance mode on Monday and almost did not get through.  Northeastern just did not give Florida State any room to breathe, but they found just enough space to get the win.  Florida State has been an offensive juggernaut through the regular season, but to be blunt their defense has done the heavy lifting in the playoffs so far other than their SELC quarterfinal win.  The offensive output has really come back to Earth for the Seminoles.  The Seminoles will need to find their offensive mojo from earlier in the season if they want to advance to the semifinals.  The Noles have averaged 11 goals per game over their last three games and I think it will take quite a few more than that to win this game.  The specialist battles will be fascinating here as Max DeMella and William Kelly square off at the faceoff dot and Ethan Streiner and Kyler Gornick man the opposing cages.  All four have had strong seasons, but it feels as though Tennessee has a slight edge in both spots.  We have highlighted all season how important possession has been for Florida State and tonight we will put that to the test.  Goals will be scored in this one so the face off guys will be busy.  FAN PICK: Tennessee (58%)

#4 Air Force vs #5 College of Idaho 6:15pm – This game is a rematch from less than a month ago when Air Force handed College of Idaho their lone loss of the season.  If I were Air Force, I would be thrilled about scoring 21 goals in our first round game, but I would be concerned about surrendering 14 goals to Coastal Carolina.  This is a proud Air Force program and I expect their defense to be more buttoned up today.  They better be because the three headed Cerberus of Wyatt Neu, Greyson Flatten, and Trevor Shoopman will make them pay if they are not.  Air Force cannot count on scoring 21 goals either against the Yotes with Brogan Rice in cage.  If Rice can make clean saves, the Longstreet brothers will be flying upfield with the ball running it right back at the Falcons.  Not many goalies make  a lot of clean saves against Mark Tang and the high flying Falcons, but Rice could be up for the job.  Both teams were able to coast a little bit down the stretch on Monday so they should be fresh.  Will the Yotes feel the pressure in their first quarterfinal since 2019?  The Falcons should be comfortable after several runs to the semifinals in recent years.  FAN PICK: 50/50

#3 Virginia Tech vs #6 South Carolina 6:30pm – These birds of a feather will be flocking outside.  Virginia Tech, much like the Yotes, can avenge their only loss of the season in this game.  As we mentioned yesterday, the Gamecocks got their groove back and may have been the most impressive team on the Division I bracket Monday.    The Hokies should have a possession advantage here.  The Gamecocks are brimming with confidence after their game yesterday and will be ready for what I expect to be a very heated game.  This game will be physical from the opening whistle.  Virginia Tech needs to avoid the first quarter doldrums they have found themselves in so often of late.   Virginia Tech’s midfield scored eight of their thirteen goals on Monday.  They will need more from their attack on Tuesday.  Christian Edwards will likely draw the Nathan Wolfe assignment and the Hokies would be wise to put him on an island as the Gamecocks offense is at its best when Wolfe is the maestro and conducting the orchestra getting his teammates great shots.  Callum Wayer will once again patrol the middle of the field for the Hokies.  South Carolina has a slight statistical advantage in the goal which will probably play out as a wash.  I would not be surprised to see Virginia Tech play at a slower pace and really value the ball here to keep it away from the Gamecocks.  The Hokies have tended to be a little loose with the ball as of late and it would behoove them to limit the turnovers.  FAN PICK: South Carolina 52%

#3 Grand Valley State vs #11 UC San Diego 6:30pm-  The Tritons got their first ever tournament win on Monday upsetting Montana State.  The Tritons did it behind great play at the faceoff dot and in the goal.  They will need those two ingredients again on Tuesday if they intend to make a run to the semifinals.  Grand Valley State started a little slow and then played the tournament as much as they played their opponents.  After building a 10-2 lead the Lakers eased their way home to advance as neither team scored a goal down the stretch.  Does stalling for that long affect a team?  Can you change gears again when the next game starts or does it take some time?  Does this cold and calculated strategy tarnish your lacrosse karma?  I can understand the thought process behind it, but I may not have been quite as bold about it as the Lakers were.  If the Lakers are razor sharp from the opening whistle, I will gladly eat crow regarding my concerns.  This feels to me like a game where the faceoff and goalie play keep the Tritons in the game two or three quarters before the dam breaks.  FAN PICK:UC San Diego (52%)

If you cannot enjoy today's slate of games, I have to ask can you still have fun?