Preview: Tourney Time

Photo by Anna Scipione

  By: E.J. Freeman | MCLA.us  

ATLANTA – This is it.  Seven conferences will determine their champions this weekend and we will see teams earn 14 automatic qualifiers.  Bubble teams will feel the air rush past them as their bubble hopes burst while others will experience the joy of seeing their name as the bubble bounces their way Sunday night. 

Obviously those bubble teams will be worried about what is happening around the country and how it impacts them, which is natural.  My advice however would be to narrow your focus and tackle the weekend one game and one possession at a time. As coaches often say, “control what you can control.”   Easier said than done.  In my experience I have found that when I am focused on the brackets as a whole and what my team’s path might be things tend not to work out, but when I simply focus on the task at hand and ignore the big picture things tend to work out better for my team, but even armed with that knowledge it is still very difficult not to get caught in the trap of looking at the whole league as a coach.

Whether your team is selected on Sunday or not, the moments away with your team working together toward that common goal are what will create the lasting memories.  So, as I mentioned on Monday be sure to embrace those times as they will come to an end and it will feel very sudden.

The games start early on Friday  so we will not waste any time as we dive right into the games.  Division I has plenty of games of consequence already on the books while Division II has the juicy match ups on deck assuming both teams win their opening games.

#9 Clemson vs #5 Tennessee 5pm Friday – One of several rematches of late season games happening this weekend.  The Vols ran away with this one 18-12 in the first meeting.  I worry about rust in this game for Clemson as they have only played two games in April.  The last time the Tigers played a top five team after a long layoff they laid quite the gg against Virginia Tech.  Tennessee on the other hand has to worry about overconfidence and looking past the Tigers.  The Volunteers are hungry for another shot at Virginia Tech after the Hokies beat them by one goal two weeks ago, but as I mentioned earlier the Volunteers would be wise to ignore the potential rematch for now and focus on the Tigers.  Tennessee has a very strong attack unit with Logan Aiello, Brooks Wehman, and Jake Schroll and have averaged nearly 15 goals per game, but against top ten teams the Vols are averaging 11 goals per game and have 1-3 in those games with the one win coming against Clemson.  Early in the season the Clemson defensive midfield looked to be playing in hyper speed as they transitioned the ball from defense to offense and if they can find that gear again it will go a long way toward helping the Tigers advance to the Atlantic Lacrosse Conference (ALC) final.  Which shade of orange reigns supreme?  Tennessee is the favorite here, but I suspect it will  be closer than the last game. FAN PICK: Tennessee (57%)

Colorado vs #1 Utah Valley 4pm Friday – The Buffs have slid into AQ or  bust territory and a semifinal game against the Wolverines makes that a daunting prospect to be sure.  There were some ruffled feathers at Utah Valley last year when Mike Kuligowski was named First Team All-Conference face off specialist over Jake Lundin.  Lundin seems to have taken that personally this season as he has left his opponents shattered in his wake behind him winning over 77% of his faceoffs this season and powering the Wolverines to an undefeated regular season.  Kuligowski took a big bite out of that faceoff advantage and gave his team a chance in the last game against the Wolverines winning 15 of 24 faceoffs helping them stay within reach of the Wolverines until a 7-1 fourth quarter put the game away.   Colorado is only scoring 10.5 goals per game and it is going to take more than that to pull off the upset against Utah Valley.   The Wolverines’ game is built on pressure; they do not concede an inch, but if Kuligowski can win the faceoff battle again and the Buffs offense can attack the pressure to score some easy goals it will go a long way toward securing the upset.  I have not seen anything yet that suggests the Buffs will be able to pull this off, but with Kuligowski tilting the field in their direction you never know.  FAN PICK: Utah Valley (85%)

#7 Arizona vs Arizona State 4pm Friday –  Arizona won the first game last week 11-7.  The Sun Devils got six goals from Ryan Kuptz, but not much else.  They will need greater depth of scoring if they hope to get the upset here.  The Sun Devils will be looking to play spoiler here as they are firmly in AQ or bust territory.  Arizona has a top-ten ranking, but the resume is  a little lacking with only two ranked wins so far (San Diego State and Chapman).  If they lose here they will be sweating Sunday night’s call.  FAN PICK: Arizona (75%)

#17 Chapman vs #11 San Diego State 6:30pm Friday – The Aztecs won this game 14-8 a week ago behind a huge day from Luc Schneider.  I have said all season that the production San Diego State gets while winning less than 37% of faceoffs is wildly impressive, but eventually they have to get more possession.  The good news for the Aztecs is that Eli Griffith is saving nearly 60% of the shots he is facing to help even things out.  A win here likely cements the Aztecs’ case for an at-large bid.  Chapman on the other hand has descended to AQ or bust territory most likely.  Losses to Texas Christian, Colorado, and Colorado State along with a non-competitive loss to Arizona have likely doomed the Panthers’  at-large chances.  They remain ranked, but only just barely.  A win in this game would keep them in the conversation, but I do not know if it would be enough for them.  The Panthers have the ability to go on a run and take home the Southwestern Lacrosse Conference(SLC) Tournament title and take it out of the committee’s hands, but it would all start with this game.  I would  be surprised to see the Panthers reverse the outcome of the last  game, but that is why we play the games.  FAN PICK: Chapman (60%)

#10 Coastal Carolina vs #10 Wake Forest 2pm Saturday –What is more important for a playoff run: goalie play or faceoffs?  This game might give us an idea.  Rylan Hackett has won an absurd 93% of his faceoffs on the season and gives the Chanticleers a clear possession advantage.  On the other end, Wake Forest goalie Jake Shulkin is saving an equally absurd 73% of the shots he faces.  Both teams sit at 11-1 and the winner should probably feel good about their chances come Sunday night’s selection call.  Neither team has seen a ranked opponent since February so there may be an adjustment period as both teams realize they cannot just do whatever they want as they have gotten away with over the last month.  My gut says the possession advantage is too much and Coastal Carolina wears down Wake Forest late. UNC-Wilmington is likely waiting for the winner in what should be a hard fought game for the hardware.   FAN PICK: Wake Forest (53%)

#16 Dayton vs St. John’s 7:30pm Friday – The Johnnies looked much improved earlier in the season, but have gotten pushed around some late in the season.  Dayton is still hoping to make their to way to Richmond, but has work to do this weekend.  Can the Johnnies regain their early season form and get another shot at their rival Tommies?  If Dayton wins, they can grab the selection committee’s attention if they are able to hand St. Thomas their first loss of the season on Saturday in the semifinals.  I expect the Flyers to take this one.  FAN PICK: Dayton (60%)

#20 Liberty vs #3 Virginia Tech 7:30pm Friday- The last prayer for the defending champs as they need to at minimum win this game to remain in the at-large discussion.  The Flames have talent, but have not been able to maintain the level of play we are all accustomed to from them.  Have they forged a toughness in the fire that will let them upset their rivals?  The Hokies have suffered one loss and other than a one goal win over Tennessee have been dominant all season.  Do the Hokies have the focus necessary to end the Flames’ season Friday night?  It would be natural to look ahead after the way the Hokies won the first match up.  If the Flames win this game do they get the Blue Ridge Belt or does that only change hands after regular season games?  My guess is that the Flames take an early lead and get the Hokies’ attention before the Hokies refocus and take the game.  If the Hokies win the ALC title there is a real conversation about who should be the two seed assuming Utah Valley beats Brigham Young to win the RMLC.  The Cougars and Hokies would have comparable resumes.  FAN PICK: Virginia Tech (67%)

Sonoma State vs #6 UC Santa Barbara  11:30am Saturday – The first game between these two was a 5-4 slugfest that the Gauchos won.  Sonoma has stymied teams with their zone defense all season although Cal did seem to solve it in their game a few weeks ago.  The Gauchos have no doubt been focused on finding the seams in the zone and solving goalie Rile Corcoran who is saving 67% of the shots he sees for Sonoma.  The Sea Wolves have exploded on offense the last few weeks so I expect this game to be higher scoring than the first edition, but I think it will be close again with the Gauchos advancing narrowly.  FAN PICK: Sonoma State (71%)

#13 UC San Diego vs Arizona Christian 11:30am Saturday – These two played a one goal game two weeks ago.  The Firebirds won over 80% of the faceoffs in that contest,  but could not pull the upset.  I expect the Tritons will have some tricks up their sleeve to eat into the possession advantage.  Arizona Christian will be at home as the tournament hosts, which is an unfortunate coincidence for the Tritons.  The winner will most likely face Cal State San Marcos in Sunday’s final.  UC San Diego has the experience, but I think Arizona Christian pulls the upset here. FAN PICK: UC San Diego (56%)

#16 California vs #18 Cal Poly 4:30pm Saturday –Way back on February 7 Cal Poly won the first game between these two in overtime.  I was surprised to see the Mustangs have won four of the last five in this series.  The winner of this game still has hope for an at-large bid while the loser can start planning for next season.  These teams will be well prepared for each other as they have great coaching staffs leading them; will either team have a surprise waiting for the other?  Hale Brown is a weapon at the faceoff dot for the Bears.  The Mustangs’ offense is led by two freshmen, how different will they be than the first time these teams met?  At first I was leaning toward Cal, but the recent history in this series swung me back toward Cal Poly.  FAN PICK: California 65%

Quick Sticks

-Grand Valley State and St. Thomas are lying in wait for the quarterfinal winners in the Upper Midwest Lacrosse Conference (UMLC) Division II Tournament.  No one would be surprised to see those two play again on Sunday or even if we saw a third edition of that game in Richmond.

-Similarly, College of Idaho and Montana seem poised to clash again, but they must get through their semifinal games first.  Joey Cortner in goal gives Montana a chance every time they take the field.  The Yotes got the win the first time these teams met, but I think in a playoff scenario Cortner leads the Griz to the win. 

-Rhode Island is a heavy favorite to win the Continental Lacrosse Conference (CLC) Division II.

-On the Division I side Boston College faces Pittsburgh and Northeastern plays Temple in the semifinals.  I’d expect the Massachusetts schools  to sweep and meet in the final.  Northeastern grounded the Eagles last week, which surprised some across the country.  I for one was not shocked, the Huskies are never an easy out and seem to be good for at least one of these games per season.  Can the Huskies do it again with an angry Eagles team as opposed to the one that seemed to have some overconfidence?

-Cal State San Marcos is the heavy favorite to win the SLC Division II and likely a lock for Richmond, but has not played a ranked team in over a month.  How prepared will they be for what awaits in Richmond?

-Oregon and Simon Fraser appear to be on a collision course in the Pacific Northwest Collegiate Lacrosse League (PNCLL) Division I.  I am not sure either team is suited to stop the other one so I hope they are ready for some fireworks In Seattle. 

- In the RMLC Division II it looks like Montana State and Air Force will meet in the final.  They did not play in the regular season this season so this game will be refreshingly new should it happen.

- On the Division I side of the UMLC we slide directly into the semifinals.  Purdue and Michigan State will be on one side with Iowa State and Minnesota clashing on the other. 

-In the Western Collegiate Lacrosse League Division II UC Davis is the favorite to bring home the trophy and advance to Richmond. 

All tournament brackets and information can be found here.

Settle in and enjoy the tournaments this weekend.

Head coaches get your nominations in for Warrior Player of the Week and PEARL Goalie of the Week as this is the last week we will be handing them out.  Do not forget to submit nominations for Lacrosse Specialties Player of the Month for April!  Send all nominations to info@mcla.us