Weekender: First Take

by Jac Coyne | MCLA.us

LA CROSSE, Wis. – Anyone who has read this space with any consistency knew I’d be making a run at predicting the fields for the 2025 MCLA National Championships presented by New Balance, which will be held from May 5-10 at the Round Rock (Texas) Multipurpose Complex.

Well, here we go, with the standard caveat that I don’t have any inside scoop. While I receive the weekly committee emails, I haven’t read them to this point, specifically so I can write this piece.

Division I

No. 16 Michigan State v. No. 1 Brigham Young
Sparty has played a relatively tough slate, which should have them ready to take down the UMLC crown. It’s not spoken about in pleasant company, but the BYU schedule is pretty weak for a top seed. Alas, 29-game winning streaks have their privileges.

No. 15 Simon Fraser v. No. 2 Liberty
If the Flames win out, they have a very plausible case for the top seed regardless of what BYU does, but the second seed ain’t bad, either. Obviously, Fraser is a placeholder for the PNCLL champ, which could also be Oregon or Boise State. The PNCLL has the better collective schedule than the UMLC.

No. 14 UC Santa Barbara v. No. 3 Florida
Went back-and-forth between the Gauchos and FSU, so if you want to put the ‘Noles here, I’d go along. UCSB is a the monkey-wrench in this whole process because of both its wins and losses. I feel comfortable with this Gator squad grabbing the SELC title.

No. 13 Colorado v. No. 4 Texas
The Buffs are another mercurial team that has a couple of head-scratchers, but third place in the RMLC might be good enough. Texas is almost single-handedly propping up Florida State’s candidacy, but assuming they get by South Carolina this weekend, they should run the table.

No. 12 Georgia Tech v. No. 5 Northeastern
The Yellow Jackets are both upwardly and downwardly mobile depending on the next couple of games. The early-season win over FSU might end up being the one that pushes them through. If you want to ding the Huskies for their clunker in the Twin Cities, I’d be fine with them at No. 6, as well.

No. 11 Virginia Tech v. No. 6 Cal Poly
Poly’s Lone Star stinker cost them some seeding equity, but I still see them taking the WCLL title. The Hokies could play themselves right out of the tournament if they don’t take care of business the next two weeks, but they’re a tick better than the Vols, especially at home.

No. 10 Georgia v. No. 7 Arizona State
I had the Dawgs slotted at No. 9, but had to break up a potential intra-conference first-round matchup between SDSU and ASU. So Georgia gets the presumptive SLC champs. This part of the bracket is always interchangeable.

No. 9 San Diego State v. No. 8 Utah Valley
Two presumptive losses to BYU are going to give UVU at least four setbacks on the season and make them a higher seed than they probably should be. It also sets them up for a third Cougar conflict if they can bury SDSU for a second time.

Division II

No. 16 UC Davis v. No. 1 UC San Diego
Davis is a WCLL placeholder (although I’m pretty confident in the Aggies being here) and, barring a San Marcos upset in the regular season or SLCs, the Tritons feel comfortable at No. 1.

No. 15 Tulane v. No. 2 UNC-Charlotte
Like UC Davis, Tulane is the LSA rep at this point, but don’t sleep on Texas State or Arkansas pulling a stunner. The 49ers are a wagon and will easily jump into the top seed should UCSD falter.

No. 14 Rhode Island v. No. 3 Florida Atlantic
Rhody is the best of the CLC lot, but an argument could be made that the LSA deserves No. 14, especially if its Tulane. Assuming they roll to the SELC title – a pretty safe bet, it would appear – the Owls are hard-wired into the third slot.

No. 13 Florida Gulf Coast v. No. 4 Northwest Nazarene
Losing to Montana makes things awkward for the Eagles and the committee. If they beat Kennesaw again in the SELC semifinals, I’ll feel better about them. No one is catching Naz in the PNCLL.

No. 12 Montana v. No. 5 Grand Valley State
North Dakota State and the Griz meet in a couple of weeks, which will influence who gets in. The Bison are almost assuredly going to be a sub-.500 team, influencing how they are considered regardless of whether they beat Montana. Two assumed wins over St. Thomas will buoy the Lakers to this point, but their schedule won’t let them get much higher.

No. 11 College of Idaho v. No. 6 Air Force
The contest this weekend between the Yotes and Montana State will bring this part of the bracket into a clearer light, but there will have to be some machinations to avoid a Bobcat-Falcon RMLC clash in the first round.

No. 10 Montana State v. No. 7 St. Thomas
Odd seeing the Tommies in this part of the bracket, but the UMLC ain’t what it used to be. Not to say St. Thomas won’t be expected to keep its national semifinal streak alive, but if they lose to GVSU twice (as I expect), its best win will be…Montana State.

No. 9 Cal State San Marcos v. No. 8 Utah State
The Cougars seem like a safe bet as the second team out of the SLC and there is not much room for moving up (barring a win over UCSD), especially considering Utah State doubled them up earlier in the season. If this happens, it’ll be a much better game as San Marcos has figured some things out.

Games I’m Following

No. 5 Grand Valley State at No. 13 North Dakota State, Friday – 8:45 p.m. (GVS -9.5 | 28)
This game probably shouldn’t make the cut, but I’m going to include it just to see how far ahead GVSU is from the pack heading into Sunday’s game with No. 6 St. Thomas. The Lakers have seen the Bison 10-man ride countless times, so there won’t be any secrets, just like NDSU is no stranger to GVSU's approach. It’ll come down to talent differential.

No. 14 Tennessee at No. 2 Liberty, Friday – 11:59 p.m. (LIB -4.5 | 24)
The Volunteers are playing with house money in this one and get a look at the Flames prior to a potential second meeting in the ALC tourney, but this won’t have any conference implications. And Tennessee likely won’t get dinged too much losing to the second-rated squad. Playing in the Midnight Madness game should allow UT to play fast and loose. The Flames have outscored their last three opponents 66-16, so complacency will be the enemy for Kyle McQuillan’s troops.

No. 19 Arizona at Chapman, Saturday – 11 a.m. (CHAP -1.5 | 19)
While it’s technically not the Panthers last stand – they can still win their last three and own the head-to-head against SDSU for the final SLC playoff spot – if they can’t tame Arizona at home, it’s tough envisioning them beating the Aztecs (who whooped the Wildcats, 17-10). On the flipside, a win for Arizona and Matt Blamey’s outfit will have a shot at the top seed in the league playoffs.

No. 4 Northwest Nazarene at No. 14 Montana, Saturday – 12 p.m. (NNU -11 | 31)
This is a rematch of last year’s PNCLL title tilt and a potential preview of this year’s (we’ll get a better feel after the Grizzlies play College of Idaho on Friday). The Nighthawks nuked Montana in that final, 20-5, and it’s tough seeing the Griz flipping the script. But we’ll keep our fingers crossed for something competitive.

California at Sonoma State, Saturday – 12 p.m. (CAL -5.5 | 22)
A bit of an inside-baseball WCLL matchup with the winner likely wrapping up a home seed in the first round. It’s improbable that either will be able to grab one of the two byes into the conference semifinals, so getting home field is the next best award.

No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Georgia, Saturday – 1 p.m. (UGA -1.5 | 22)
If you think the SELC has the juice to grab three of the seven at-large bids this year, then this game doesn’t mean much. If you think the conference as a whole is showing itself to be 'mid,' as the kids say, the loser of this contest is going to have a tight collar for the next two weeks. The Bulldogs haven’t played a meaningful – or competitive – game since February while the Jackets best win came in January. The winner will be breathing easier.

Texas Christian at Southern Methodist, Saturday – 1 p.m. (SMU -1 | 13)
You might have to be an LSA connoisseur to appreciate this unranked matchup, especially since both are ticketed through to the league playoffs. Alas, this will be a better indicator of which team has the better shot at giving Texas some trouble down the stretch, because there is no one else left. We’ll also get a matchup between two of the best goalies in the country in TCU’s Carter Schubert and SMU’s Declan Maseker. Take the under.

No. 5 Texas at South Carolina, Saturday – 2 p.m. (TX -4 | 20)
The Longhorns sneak in one last road trip to the Palmetto State before squatting in their backyard for the remainder of the season. I’m not envisioning too much trouble for UT with High Point on Friday evening, but the Gamecocks are not to be trifled with, as Arizona found out last weekend. Texas probably sees TCU’s win over USC earlier this year and is thinking lay-up, but the Cocks have rattled off five straight and would love to grill up some choice beef.

No. 8 Florida State at No. 3 Florida, Saturday – 7 p.m. (UF -5 | 28)
See above analysis of Georgia Tech-Georgia contest. The Gators looks to be through, but if FSU losses and then get bounced by either the Jackets or Dawgs in the first round of the SELCs, they are going to be a very bubbly team (despite the fact that I think they are worthy). From the eye test, this looks like a terrible matchup for the Noles. On the bright side, a win and FSU can start putting in Round Rock rib orders.

No. 18 Miami at No. 3 Florida Atlantic, Saturday – 7 p.m. (FAU -7 | 24)
The Canes are a good team, but they’ll have to throw everything and a palm tree at FAU because their best-case scenario is winning and creating a three-way tie-breaker for a spot in the SELC tourney. The Owls are one of those rare teams that could miss their league playoff and still make it to Round Rock, but they’ll be heavy favorites. Should be plenty of goals.

No. 5 Grand Valley State at No. 6 St. Thomas, Sunday – 10 a.m. (GVS -4.5 | 23.5)
The gem of the weekend will be played in a dome, which is a tragedy. Whenever Michigan and Minnesota get after it, weather should play a role. Alas, it will be a clean, dry track that should drive up the scoring. That might favor the Lakers, but there will be other mini-matchups – faceoff, goalie, etc. – that will ultimately decide this one. The Tommies’ hiatus could be a curse.

No. 11 College of Idaho at No. 9 Montana State, Sunday – 11 a.m. (MSU -2.5 | 26)
We’re sure that the Bobcats are a good team, right? I think they are. They’re two goals away from beating a pair of ranked teams to be 7-1 and ranked in the Top 5. Still, there is definitely something missing from last year, and it kind of showed up against Montana. Sure, they got the two-goal win in a rivalry game, but FAU annihilated the Griz. Playing at home will help, but the Yotes have proven themselves to be the real deal, beating the same Utah State team the Bobcats couldn’t.

No. 11 Virginia Tech at Clemson, Sunday – 12 p.m. (VT -3.5 | 24)
Hoo boy, Virginia Tech at Clemson. ALWAYS a good time. It doesn’t have the same vibe as, say, 2022, when the Hokies were the top seed in Round Rock and the Tigers made the national semifinals, but late-season divisional clashes are always fun. Clemson didn’t do itself any favors scheduling JMU on Saturday afternoon before facing a rested rafter of Turkeys, but with a win and a favorable outcome between VT and Tennessee, and the Tigers could conceivably grab an ALC bye.

No. 18 Utah at No. 15 Colorado, Sunday – 2 p.m. (CU -3 | 21)
Crunch time in Ute-ville. There are five teams left for four spots in the RMLC playoffs and there is going to be one squad that was ranked at some point this season with its nose pressed up against the fence, peering in at the chosen ones. If Utah doesn’t at least split this weekend, they are likely the ones with the short straw. With all of that said, either Colorado or Colorado State could be in this same place on Monday if the Utes grab one.

Slides & Rides

- Get those award nominations for PEARL goalie and Warrior player in to info@mcla.us by noon on Monday. Only a couple of weeks left, so make sure your players are getting recognized.