Weekender: State of the Race

(Photo by Bob White)

by Jac Coyne | MCLA.us

LA CROSSE, Wis. – There’s always a rush to put together mock national tournament brackets, but let’s check in on the various conferences and predict what the various league tourneys are going to look like.

For the record, there are very few teams officially eliminated from conference tournament contention, but this is what my data-driven analytics suggest. (I don’t have any data-driven analytics).

Atlantic Lacrosse Conference

Division I
The big question appears to be who will be the third seed out of the North? It could come down to the Backyard Brawl (Pitt-WVU) on April 16 with the winner getting the nod. I’ve got Tennessee grabbing the top spot in the South, but the Vols and Virginia Tech should be one-two in some form.

First Round
#3N Pittsburgh at #2N James Madison
#3S Clemson at #2S Virginia Tech

Semifinals
#3N/#2N winner vs. #1S, Tennessee
#3S/#2S winner vs. #1N Liberty

Division II
The top three in the South seem pretty locked in – which, admittedly, is weird to write considering there has been no subdivisional action yet. There is much more wiggle room in the North with only Wake being essentially booked to Lynchburg. A lot of moving pieces.

First Round
#3N William & Mary at #2N Virginia Tech D-II
#3S UNC-Wilmington at #2S Coastal Carolina

Semifinals – April 26
#3N/#2N winner vs. #1S UNC-Charlotte
#3S/#2S winner vs. #1N Wake Forest

Continental Lacrosse Conference

Division I
UConn and New Hampshire could flip-flop and Syracuse could have a say about the final spot, but the Orangemen might be a year off.

Semifinals
#4 UConn v. #1 Northeastern
#3 New Hampshire v. #2 Boston College

Division II
I could potentially see Stonehill jumping up into the mix for the fourth spot if they can knock off Maine at home on March 30. Everything else looks solid at this point.

Semifinals
#4 Maine v. #1 Rhode Island
#3 UMass Dartmouth v. #2 Bridgewater State

Lone Star Alliance

Division I
There’s a lot of dead-reckoning here because the conference season is really just getting underway. Kansas and Texas appear to be relatively safe picks atop their respective subdivisions, but everything else is rolling dice.

Quarterfinals
#4N Oklahoma v. #1S Texas
#3N Missouri v. #2S Texas Christian
#3S Southern Methodist v. #2N Baylor
#4S Texas A&M v. #1N Kansas

Division II
LSA-II has one of the funkier playoff formats – including an at-large – that makes it very difficult to pin down seeds, but this is the best I’ve got right now.

Semifinals
#1 Tulane v. #AL Drury
#2 Texas State v. #3 Arkansas

Pacific Northwest Collegiate Lacrosse League

Division I
I kind of chickened out, only because Oregon State and Washington play tomorrow and I honestly have no idea who I’d go with. Gun to my head, probably the Huskies, but the winner is slotted fourth.

Semifinals
#4 OSU/UW v. #1 Simon Fraser
#3 Boise State v. #2 Oregon

Division II
Montana and Western Oregon could flip depending on their matchup on March 29 in Missoula, but everything else looks about right.

Semifinals
#2N Western Oregon v. #1S Northwest Nazarene
#2S College of Idaho v. #1N Montana

Rocky Mountain Lacrosse Conference

Division I
This is actually a really tough race to call. White Utah Tech has stepped up and played a very strong schedule, the Trailblazers are probably a year off for contention in the four-team tourney. That leaves five for four and a strong case can be made for all of them. The top two are no surprise.

The other choices are based on home field for the regular season matchup. Colorado has to play at Colorado State and Utah is on the road against both. It will be an extremely compelling finish to the season.

Semifinals
#4 Colorado v. #1 Brigham Young
#3 Colorado State v. #2 Utah Valley 1 p.m.

Division II
This seems pretty straightforward, although Colorado Mines will have something to say about it tonight when they travel to Denver.

#2SE Denver v. #1NW Montana State
#2NW Utah State v. #1SE Air Force

SouthEastern Lacrosse Conference

Division I
So many moving parts in this one. Auburn is likely to take the head-to-head with Central Florida to place them third out of the South. For much the same reason – strength of competition – I think South Carolina will down Alabama for the final spot in the North.

Rolled with the home teams in the race for No. 1 and that is both Georgia and Florida. Both are the better team at this point, as well, but there is a lot of time between now and those rivalry games get decided. Whichever teams get the No. 2s, neither can afford a first round loss because it could knock them out of the big dance.

First Round
#3S Auburn at #2N Georgia Tech
#3N South Carolina at #2S Florida State

Semifinal
#3S/#2N winner v. #1S Florida
#3N/#2S winner v. #1N Georgia

Division II

This might be the hardest one. Despite its rough start, I’m going to pencil in Kennesaw atop the North division, mostly because they’ve played a brutal schedule. The rest of the North is a mystery mostly because the three-way between Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee and Georgia Southern in mid-February was postponed (and hasn't been rescheduled to this point). I’m going with GSU over Vandy now.

It doesn’t get any easier in the South with four quality teams. Florida Atlantic is the class of the group, so I’ll put them in the first chair. We’ll put FGCU in the other, but there would be no surprise if Miami or Tampa jumped in.

Semifinal
#2N Georgia Southern v. #1S Florida Atlantic
#2S Florida Gulf Coast v. #1N Kennesaw State

Southwestern Lacrosse Conference

Division I
The conference schedule is so wonderfully backloaded that it’s going to be really difficult to project the top four. Chapman looks like they’re in rough shape now, but things don’t get serious until the end of the month when they could go on a heater. Same with pretty much all of the programs. Let’s give it a shot, though.

Semifinals
#4 Arizona v. #1 San Diego State
#3 Chapman v. #2 Arizona State

Division II
The biggest wild card is Northern Arizona, but they are playing a relatively weak slate and they've scheduled the minimum. LMU and Arizona Christian have been testing themselves despite their records, so I’ll go with the teams that will be more grizzled come April.

Semifinals
#4 Arizona Christian v. #1 UC San Diego
#3 Loyola Marymount v. #2 Cal State San Marcos

Upper Midwest Lacrosse Conference

Division I
I bailed out by putting Michigan State atop the East because it didn’t look that great on its three-game opening weekend, but Sparty did play some stiff competition that had been outside for a while. I do think Miami (Ohio) will get slotted second after they make up the game against Indiana at the end of the season.

Illinois is an unknown in the West and could make a run at the top seed, but I like what I’ve seen out of Iowa State. Plus, the Cyclones have already pocketed a win over Minnesota.

First Round
GM 1: #3E Indiana v. #2W Minnesota
GM 2: #3W Illinois v. #2E Miami (Ohio)

Semifinals
GM 1 winner v. #1E Michigan State
GM 2 winner v. #1W Iowa State

Division II
Dayton and Central Michigan play tonight, which will shore up the East two-three (GVSU is an easy pick as the top seed). The St. John’s/Minn.-Duluth tilt to wrap up the season on April 17 will determine who gets the West three and who goes home.

First Round
GM 1: #3E Central Michigan v. #2W North Dakota State
GM 2: #3W Minn.-Duluth v. #2E Dayton

Semifinals
GM 1 winner v. #1E, Grand Valley State
GM 2 winner v. #1W, St. Thomas

Western Collegiate Lacrosse League

Division I
Six of the seven teams make the tourney and, unfortunately, Stanford looks a step slow this spring and is the odd squad out. That could change next weekend if the Cardinal can trip up Nevada on the Farm, however. Cal Poly will host UC Santa Barbara on April 12 in what would appear to be the race for the top seed, but with the top two teams getting a bye, it’ll mean more for national seedings.

First Round
GM 1: #6 Nevada at #3 California
GM 2: #5 Santa Clara at #4 Sonoma State

Semifinals
GM 2 winner at #1 Cal Poly
GM 1 winner at #2 UC Santa Barbara

Division II
I feel like I've got the correct four teams, but the seeding is a little more troublesome. A long way to go in the WCLL-II, which gets its AQ back this spring.

Semifinals
#4 UC Santa Cruz v. #1 UC Davis
#3 Chico State v. #2 San Jose State

Games I’m Following

No. 18 James Madison at South Carolina, 6 p.m. – Friday (JMU -4.5 | 19)

Tennessee handed the Dukes their first loss in overtime while South Carolina snapped its five-game losing skid with a wipeout of South Florida. This non-conference bout is more about JMU at this point as it is another chance to prove it is a threat in the ALC race. They’ll also have to prove they can win a grinder, because nothing will come easy offensively against the Gamecocks.

Drury at Arkansas, 6 p.m. – Friday (ARK -4.5 | 23)

The Razorbacks can take a big step toward grabbing the top seed out of the LSA North if they can tame the Panthers in Fayetteville. With long-time LSA tyrant MoState already holding a subdivisional loss to Arkansas, the winner will have a big leg up (although WashU still has a say). Drury is playing with a short bench, so the Razorback depth might be the difference in the second half.

Central Michigan at Dayton, 6 p.m. – Friday (DAY -2 | 20.5)

File this under things you don’t see every day: the Chippewas have more poll votes (2) than the Flyers (0). CMU is getting some credit for its 3-0 start and Dayton is getting dinged for its 0-3 opening, but the gap in competition level is pretty substantial. Not to say that the Chips don’t have a nice squad this year, but getting past the Flyers will show us they have taken some big steps.

No. 14 Tennessee at No. 11 Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. – Friday (UT -3 | 29.5)

After its lost weekend in Virginia, the Ramblin’ Wreck probably could have used a get-well game. Instead, they are hosting a Vols outfit that knows how to score. Tennesse has four players with at least 25 points led by Mason Cain (28) and Logan Aiello (28) and a FOGO pushing a 90-percent winning mark in Max DeMella. Brooks Baro and Pierce Quarles better have their scoring boots on for the Jackets.

No. 9 Utah State at No. 4 Montana State, 7 p.m. – Friday (MSU -7 | 30)

There’s not a ton riding on this game in terms of the RMLC Northwest race other than the winner likely avoiding Air Force in the conference semifinals. Each has played a quality schedule, but the Aggies will need at least a split this weekend – they play Montana on Saturday – to keep their at-large chances at a healthy level. A sweep would lock them in, but this will be a tough slog for USU.

Boston College at No. 7 Arizona State, 7 p.m. – Friday (ASU -1.5 | 19.5)

I’m not going to put the ‘must-win’ marker on this game for the Eagles, but this is quietly a huge weekend for BC’s at-large chances. The South Carolina loss is a rough one, even though it was the Eags first-game. A loss to the Sun Devils and their best win still stands as Clemson. With some more games under its belt, I expect Boston College to be in this one until the final whistle.

No. 8 Northwest Nazarene at No. 2 St. Thomas, 12 p.m. – Saturday (UST -6.5 | 22)

The Nighthawks took a couple of losses at home against a pair of quality teams and now they have a chance to get back on the good foot in Minnesota. Naz runs a three-day gauntlet against St. John’s, North Dakota State and finishes up with the Tommies. Realistically, NNU could very likely be 2-0 heading into the finale, which should allow Tom Blanchard’s troops let it all hang out. St. Thomas has the luxury of being fresh as a daisy on Saturday, which is a sizable competitive disadvantage for NNU. But it’ll be a good  tournament test run for the ‘Hawks.

No. 16 Oregon at California, 1 p.m. – Saturday (CAL -1 | 24)

I’m slightly fascinated by the Ducks right now and their ranking. Obviously, the coaches think highly of Oregon and I’m assuming its because they played BYU to a goal. As far as ‘quality losses,’ that’s right up there, and the Colorado State win was solid. But the Birds lost at home to Simon Fraser, who are not even ranked (despite likely being the top seed in the PNCLL). Cal has played the far stiffer schedule and have some near-misses of its own (UCSB, SDSU, ASU). The only time they weren’t competitive was against Texas. Home field could make a difference here.

No. 13 Virginia Tech at Chapman, 1 p.m. – Saturday (VT -1.5 | 26)

This would have been a game of the week lay-up heading into the season, but times have changed. I’ve got to believe Chapman has the toughest SOS in the country at this point and it doesn’t let up with the Hokies, Gauchos, Cal and the Sun Devils lined up next. Tech has a win over Georgia Tech to build on, but the Turkeys have dropped three of their last five, including a lost weekend in the Sunshine State. I’m seeing this in the 13-12 range for one team or the other.

Slides & Rides

Congrats to Ryan Craig of the Citadel for hitting the 100-point plateau…37 games on the scheduled for Saturday and another dozen on Sunday…a lot of quality midweek action next week, so keep your eyes peeled for potential streams…remember to spring ahead with the clocks on Sunday. The mornings get shorter, but the evenings get brighter.

- PEARL Goalie of the Week nominations and Warrior Player of the Week nominations from head coaches due by noon on Monday to info@mcla.us.