Monday Preview: Here we go

(Photo by Jodi Vosika)

by E.J. Freeman | MCLA.us

RICHMOND-  We made it. The Run To Richmond is complete and now we start running IN Richmond.  The selection committees have put together two really solid brackets and I expect hard fought tournaments in both divisions.

First, let me say that if you are a lacrosse fan or an MCLA fan that has never been to the MCLA National Championships Presented by New Balance you are missing out.  The scene on Monday and Tuesday with four games happening at the same time in such proximity is something that is not replicated anywhere else in college lacrosse.  It is easy for folks that have been to the tournament several times or will only be satisfied if they take home the hardware to take the experience for granted, but I would encourage everyone in Richmond, fans, coaches, players, and otherwise to take at least a few moments to look around and appreciate how unique this event is and how lucky we are to be here taking part in it. 

Now, enough of that gooey show of emotion- it is time to talk about the games.

SESSION ONE

#1 Brigham Young vs #16 Michigan State 10am Monday- This is never an easy game for the No. 16 seed.  Last year Minnesota and Liberty were tied at five before the Flames went on a monster run to win 21-8.  Michigan State was here two years ago and ironically was the No. 16 seed playing against Brigham Young.  That game also started out close before the Cougars ran away with it.  The Spartans have talented players and played one game against a tournament team this season losing a 13-10 decision against San Diego State.  The Spartans are likely to keep this one close for a quarter or perhaps a half before the Cougars run away with it.  It is easy to be overconfident as the top seed so it may take a while before the Cougars give the Spartans their full attention, but they would be wise to start fast because the longer Michigan State hangs around, the more belief they will have. FAN PICK: BYU (70%)

#1 St. Thomas vs #16 Arkansas 10am Monday- Being next on the schedule for Tommies after they suffered their first loss of the season is not an enviable position the Razorbacks find themselves in.  This Arkansas team though seems to have a brashness that is rare among No. 16 seeds.  Surely they will respect St. Thomas, but I do not sense that there will be the intimidation that sometimes accompanies one of these games.  I suspect the Razorbacks will play inspired lacrosse early and keep it close for a while before St. Thomas is able to capitalize on any small mistake Arkansas makes.  The Tommies may downshift some if the game is in hand late in order to limit some wear and tear.  FAN PICK: St. Thomas (66%)

#2 Utah Valley vs #15 Oregon 10:15am Monday – There will be plenty of green clad folks for this one.  The Wolverines are coming in angry after suffering their first defeat of the season in the RMLC title game.  Oregon is back at the tournament for the first time since 2018.  If the Ducks are just happy to be here this could get ugly fast.  The Ducks can score and if they can handle the pressure that the Wolverines will bring they will be able to test the Utah Valley defense.  If the pressure overwhelms the Ducks, the Wolverines will run roughshod over Oregon.  I think Oregon will score some goals, but the pressure of Jacob Lundin at the faceoff dot and what I fully expect to be a refocused Wolverine team will be too much for the Ducks to overcome.  FAN PICK: Oregon (54%)

#2 Cal State San Marcos vs #15 Dayton 10:15am Monday – Dayton is battle tested coming out of the UMLC even if the league “only” sent three teams to the tournament this year.  On the other hand the only tournament team that San Marcos has played in the last two months is UC San Diego (granted they beat them twice).  You can only beat the teams in front of you, but I wonder if the Cougars will take some time to recalibrate against an increased level of competition.  Dayton is an interesting beast in that their three leading scorers are all listed as midfielders, which can present some interesting challenges to the opposing defense.  I think the Cougars after a slow start establish themselves and ground the Flyers. FAN PICK: Cal State San Marcos (63%)

SESSION TWO

#8 Arizona vs #9 Georgia 12:45pm Monday – We have cats and dogs in this one.  Arizona has only one loss and won the SLC title so I would wager they are little grumpy about getting the No. 8 seed.  There is a fine line between being motivated by a perceived slight and being overly focused on something that is out of your control.  The Wildcats will need to walk that line carefully.  The folks in Tucson have certainly not been shy about letting people know when they feel their team has been slighted or underrated, but at this point it is time to just beat the team in front of you and move on.  Georgia is back in the tourney for the first time since 2023 when the current group of seniors were freshmen and they lost a heartbreaker in the quarterfinals.  Rory Cavanaugh is one of those seniors and will surely be at the top of the scouting report.  Cavanaugh has been at the top of said scouting report for four years now and it has not slowed him down too much so I expect he will produce once again.  Cavanaugh is 28 points ahead of the second leading scorer for the Dawgs.  Loudenridge Sundling leads the way for the Wildcats with 69 points, but Matthew Bechtold is only eight points behind.  As one would expect in the No. 8 vs No. 9 game, the two teams have similar profiles.  Georgia beat San Diego State by three early in the season and Arizona beat the Aztecs by three twice.  The one number that seems to favor Arizona is faceoffs.  I suspect the Wildcats will have a possession advantage that will be just enough to get them into round two.  FAN PICK: Arizona (62%)

#8 Florida Atlantic vs #9 UNC-Wilmington 12:45pm Monday – Much like Arizona, UNC-Wilmington might be a little grumpy about their seed considering their undefeated record and ALC title, but just like Arizona they cannot think about it too much or Florida Atlantic will send them home early.  The Owls, last year’s top seed, graduated a ton from last year, but have found their identity as the season has progressed this year and look to be peaking at the right time as evidenced with the SELC title.  Luke Barnett is saving nearly 80% of the shots he faces, which has to give the Seahawks confidence they can beat anyone.  The Seahawks also have three players with over 50 points so they can get it done on both ends.  Florida Atlantic also has three players with over 50 points led by Dylan Meade with 72.  The Owls boast Alex Acker in cage who is saving nearly 70 percent of the shots he faces.  Again, the No. 8 vs No. 9 game should be a tight one. FAN PICK: UNC-Wilmington (60%)

#7 Clemson vs #10 UC Santa Barbara 1pm Monday – Santa Barbara saw their seeding come in four spots behind their final poll ranking after losing to California in the WCLL title game.  Clemson meanwhile saw their seeding come in two spots ahead of their ranking in the final poll after losing to Tennessee in the semifinals of the ALC Tournament.  Clemson is talented and has players that can really get up and down the field.  They are working through the loss of Aidan McNulty for the season, which changes things for them somewhat, but they can still score.  If the Clemson defense that held Tennessee to nine goals in the ALC Tournament shows up they will be a tough team to deal with.  On the other hand, if the unit that allowed 18 to the Vols a week earlier shows up they may struggle to keep up.   The Gauchos are well coached and will not beat themselves.  They are unlikely to overwhelm Clemson, but if Clemson makes mistakes they will turn into Gaucho goals.  The statistical profiles of the two teams are very similar so I expect a close game.   FAN PICK: UCSB (63%)

#7 Montana vs #10 Rhode Island 1pm Monday – This is classic mountain vs ocean landscape battle.  Skis vs sailboats.  Montana goalie Joey Cortner boasts a save percentage over 76% which is a great foundation for the Griz.  The Rams are averaging over 16 goals per game so something has to give here.  The Griz are more than just Cortner, Reese Baron has 65 points on the season to lead the way on offense.  Zach Petit leads the way for the Rams with 60 points.  Montana can score, but I think they would prefer not to be in a shootout.  Montana faces off below 50%, which could cause problems if they allow the Rams to dominate possession.   One way to nullify a great goalie to inundate them with shots and if the Rams can dominate possession they may be on their way that.  Is Montana too steep a climb for the Rams or will Rhode Island flood the Griz?  FAN PICK: Montana (55%)

SESSION THREE

#3 Virginia Tech vs #14 Texas 3:30pm Monday – There will be plenty of orange for this game.  Virginia Tech is another group that is probably frustrated with their seed.  As I mentioned with all the other teams potentially grumpy about their seed, this is not the time to focus on that too much.  This season has had plenty of upheaval for the Longhorns, but they may have found themselves during the LSA tournament.  If so, they are a dangerous No.14 seed.  If the Hokies are not fully focused, Jack Eigen and Luke Sganga will give them fits.  If Virginia Tech is focused on the task at hand and plays to their potential, it could be a long day for the folks in burnt orange.  Jack McKenzie sat out the first half of the Hokies’ ALC semifinal and they looked lost without their usual faceoff advantage until he came back in the second half of that game.  If McKenzie is not fully healthy or gets banged up again that could be a real problem for Tech.  Texas may not be the team to cause those problems for the Hokies at the dot since they win less than 40% of faceoffs themselves.  Between the aforementioned Longhorn shooters and the Hokies’ stretch shooters, the goals in this game might have the longest average distance of any game in the first round.  Make sure the table on this field has extra zip ties handy.  The Hokies committed more penalties than I would be comfortable with in the ALC semifinal game; part of the tournament is adjusting to the officiating, as crews come together from all over the country and the game may get called differently.  If the Hokies spend a lot of time in the box that could be a problem.  Look for Callum Wayer to control the middle of the field in this game.  I expect the Longhorns to keep it competitive, but the Hokies likely have too much possession.  FAN PICK: Virginia Tech (71%)

#3 Grand Valley State vs #14 UC Davis 3:30pm Monday- The Lakers seem to be peaking at the right moment having captured the UMLC crown and handing St. Thomas their only loss.  The Lakers will not be satisfied unless they take home the hardware.    UC Davis spent April beating up on their WCLL opponents and will be taking a step up competitively in this matchup.  Marcello Battista has 70 points and has produced in every game and will be the top line of the scouting report as he tries to lead the Aggies to the upset.  UC Davis was at the tournament last year so does that experience give them confidence this time around?  The Aggies have a faceoff advantage coming into the game, if they hope to pull the upset they will need to dominate possession and will need fireworks from Battista.  They will need to control the ball and keep it away from the prolific Lake offense.  In the end, Caleb Lowell, Bryce Gordon, and company are likely too much for the Aggies. FAN PICK: Grand Valley State (76%)

#4 Florida State vs #13 Northeastern 3:45pm Monday – The Seminoles just won their first SELC title in 15 years and have a prolific offense.  Florida State has lost two games this season and in those two losses they were beaten soundly at the faceoff dot.  Possession is the name of the game.  If the Seminoles have adequate possession, they will score on every defense in the field.  When the Seminoles do not get that level of possession and the other team can score on them, their offense loses their rhythm and tends to fall out of sync.   Northeastern does not appear to be the team that can limit Florida State’s possessions as they win less than 50% of their faceoffs.  Northeastern will likely welcome any doubts thrown their way as they have done over the last several years.  The Huskies are not interested in flash or show and do not crave attention.  They have the right mindset to pull off this kind of upset, unfortunately for the Huskies I do not think this is the right matchup for them.  I think Gavin Kornitski keeps this close for a while before Tyler Morris and company separate in the second half.  FAN PICK: Florida State (59%)

#4 Air Force vs #13 Coastal Carolina 3:45pm Monday – Air Force is once again led by Mark Tang who scored six goals in the RMLC title game against Montana State.  He will present problems for Coastal Carolina.  Rylan Hackett is step one in slowing down Tang as he is winning almost 90% of his faceoffs on the season.  It will be difficult for Tang and the Falcons to score if the Chanticleers always have the ball.  Coastal is averaging 17.7 goals per game and has the profile of a much higher seed, but their schedule limited their seeding ceiling.  As much as Tang and the Falcons will cause problems for Coastal, the Chanticleers present plenty of problems of their own.  We have seen some tight No. 4 vs No. 13 games and I would expect another one here.  Coastal Carolina has three players with over 70 points leading the way.  This is not your typical No. 13 seed.  I think this game is a battle all the way to the end, but Air Force does just enough to move on.  FAN PICK: Air Force (62%)

SESSION FOUR

#6 South Carolina vs #11 San Diego State 6:15pm Monday- South Carolina is unique as a No. 6 seed that has lost their last three games.   They’ve averaged only nine goals per game in those losses.  I expect it will take more than that to beat San Diego State.  The Aztecs have put together an impressive season despite winning 35% of their faceoffs.   If the Gamecocks dominate possession, the Aztecs will not be fazed.  Luc Schneider leads the way for San Diego State with 79 points and is balanced between goals and assists making it difficult to know how to play him.  Nathan Wolfe has 73 points for South Carolina and is dominant as a distributor.  He has a knack for finding his teammates in the right spots to take advantage of any extra space the defense gives them.  Louis Stefel for San Diego State has 52 goals so the Gamecocks will need to know where he is.  Colin Jung for South Carolina is the goal leader with 39 and he can stretch a defense.  Dominating possession is often the cure for an ailing offense, we will see if the extra bites at the apple will help South Carolina’s offense find their mojo. FAN PICK: San Diego State (59%)

#6 Montana State vs #11UC San Diego 6:15pm Monday – Our only rematch of the first round.  Montana State won the first meeting 8-2, but that was way back in February.  Both teams have grown significantly since then.  The two teams look to be somewhat similar, but UC San Diego has the statistical advantage at the faceoff dot and in goal although Montana State won the faceoffs in their last meeting.  An X factor for Montana State is the return of 2025 All-America attackman Mekhi Davis who came back from injury in late March and should be fresh for the tournament run.  Vernon Loucks has 45 goals from the midfield for the Bobcats and will put pressure on the Triton defense.  The Tritons will need a big performance from Kian Gulbrandsen in net if they want to pull the upset here.   FAN PICK: Montana State (75%)

#5 Tennessee vs #12 California 6:30pm Monday – Cal might be the hottest team in the field having just gone on a heater to win the WCLL title.  Tennessee on the other hand comes in with the ALC Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Freshman of the Year, and Specialist of the Year.  Logan Aiello has really diversified his game this season and is averaging over two assists per game after primarily being a goal scorer his first two years in Knoxville.  Kyler Gornick is saving 64% of the shots he faces.  This game may be won at the faceoff dot; these teams both have guys winning more than 70% of their faceoffs.  If the faceoffs break even do both offenses feel out of rhythm because they are so used to having the lion’s share of possession?  The Vols seem to be a little more top heavy on offense while the Bears have eight guys with more than 25 points.  The Bears defense tends to be disciplined and organized and will not give the Volunteers anything easy.  Meanwhile, the Volunteers have been switching between man to man and zone defenses throughout the season.  Which team will have the answers to the test?  This could be the best game of the day on the Division I side.  FAN PICK: Cal (51%)

#5 College of Idaho vs #12 Tampa 6:30pm Monday – Tampa makes their first trip to the MCLA National Championships Presented by New Balance and will take on the Yotes from College of Idaho.  The Yotes bring a prolific offense led by Greyson Flatten and Trevor Shoopman who both have over 70 points and Wyatt Neu is not far behind with 64 points forming a three headed monster a la the mythical Cerberus.  The Yotes are taking over 50 shots per game.  Tampa is winning nearly 70% of their faceoffs and will likely look to control possession against the Yotes.  Tampa runs two faceoff men, which could wear down the Yotes draw man as the game goes on.  In their two Division II losses the Spartans have been held to single digit goal totals, they will need more than ten goals to take down the Yotes.  The Yotes have only lost one game so far and if Tampa wants to add a second loss they will need big games from Nicholas Alicanti and K.J. Schwab.  FAN PICK: College of Idaho (72%)

We’ve been building to this all season, enjoy the show.