Preview: Semifinal Showdowns

(Photo by Lance Wendt)

by E.J. Freeman | MCLA.us

RICHMOND- All eight teams left are top five seeds so it is not quite all chalk, but it is close.  All eight teams have been ranked in top ten all season, so there are no party crashers.  Wednesday is an off day, but on Thursday we are back on the train. 

#1 St. Thomas vs #5 College of Idaho 10:00am – The Tommies have not been truly tested yet after cruising past both Arkansas and UNC-Wilmington.  St. Thomas has been bringing physicality all over the field so far.  Megalodon sized defenseman Kiernan Holmes caused big problems for the Seahawks whenever he got his hands on the shifty attackmen from UNC-Wilmington.  College of Idaho’s offense is similar to the Seahawks' from a size perspective so they will need to lure the Tommies out into space.  The Yotes need their dodges to be foot races and not wrestling matches.  The Yotes had a masterful defensive gameplan against Air Force of packing their defense in and collapsing on any dodger that dared to penetrate the inside.  This forced the Falcons to shoot from distance and goalie Brogan Rice made save after save on those shots.  I expect the Yotes to employ a similar strategy against the Tommies.  The Yotes defense will hunt in packs collapsing on those interior ball carriers.  College of Idaho's defense much like their offense is built on quickness and speed rather than brawn. Look for the Yotes to run in transition off of clean saves from Rice with the Longstreet brothers and Noah Nienhouse streaking upfield. The Yotes showcased the different ways they can beat you on Tuesday when they won with limited production from their three leading scorers, which Yotes head coach Drake O’Neill was thrilled to see.  If you gave Coach O’Neill truth serum, I think he would admit he wants to get more production from Wyatt Neu, Grayson Flatten, and Trevor Shoopman against the Tommies.  On offense the Tommies have gotten it done with the midfield as the tip of the spear and with Layne Kology dominating from the attack spot; this flexibility makes the Tommies a scary opponent.  I expected a fascinating clash of styles in the St. Thomas vs UNC-Wilmington game that never really came to fruition; hopefully we get to see it in this game instead.  FAN PICK: College of Idaho (53%)

#2 Cal State San Marcos vs #3 Grand Valley State 12:45pm – This will be the Lakers’ third straight game against a team from California, but the first where they are not heavy favorites.  As we have discussed ad nauseum, the Lakers eased their way through their Monday game, but showed no signs of slowing down Tuesday.  The Cougars are the favorite by seed, but Vegas might call this a “pick ‘em.”  Cal State San Marcos has been in close games early in both games so far, but ran away from Dayton in the second half and separated from Rhode Island in the fourth quarter after trailing by one early in the quarter.  The Cougars would be wise to play the whole game the way they have played late in the first two games.  The Cougars are running a faceoff by committee approach, which can help wear down their opponents as the game goes on.  Having multiple faceoff guys is a luxury in a game where I would expect the over to hit.  Against Rhode Island, the Cougars looked discombobulated and uncomfortable on offense one minute and then immediately went on a multi-goal run.  That ability to change modes is impressive and will surely give the Lakers some cause for concern.  The Lakers seem to be peaking at the right time and Coach Tim Murray has pushed the right buttons with his team all season.  Cal State San Marcos was able to get out in transition and run en route to their eight goal fourth quarter in the quarterfinals in addition to winning the majority of faceoffs and putting relentless pressure on their opponents’ defense with time of possession.  The Cougars are too skilled to give them extra bites at the apple.  San Marcos has a dynamic attack group and it will be interesting to see if they can get loose against the locked in Laker defense.  FAN PICK: Grand Valley State (52%)

#1 Brigham Young vs #4 Florida State 4:00 pm – This game matches the two highest scoring teams from the quarterfinals.  That was the Florida State offense that we expected to see and will give defensive coordinators nightmares.  Tyler Morris is smooth and makes everything look easy as he shreds defensive coverages.  The Seminoles also have a stable of athletic midfielders that can leave their man in the dust.  The Cougars overwhelmed a feisty Georgia squad in the quarterfinals.  I would bet that Coach Matt Schneck was not thrilled with giving up seven goals in the first half, but was pleased with the way they completely extinguished the Georgia offense in the second half.  Florida State’s defense was great at taking away the skip passes that Tennessee loves to use in their quarterfinal game, which really slowed the Vols down until late in the game.  As we have mentioned here all season, faceoffs and possession will be big in this game as Florida State can score on anyone provided they have a large enough share of the possessions.  Florida State has a moderate statistical advantage at the faceoff dot coming in.  In goal Ethan Streiner for Florida State and Easton Wilkey for Brigham Young have similar save percentages.  The Cougars essentially have two 100-point scorers in Mason Quick (121 points) and Gavin Taylor (98 points).  If the Florida State offense from the quarterfinals is there this game is a toss-up, but if the funk from the SELC semis and finals and the first round re-appears, the Noles are in trouble.  Their first few possessions might be very telling.  FAN PICK: BYU (64%)

#2 Utah Valley vs #3 Virginia Tech 6:45pm – The night cap should be a good one.  Jack Mckenzie vs Jacob Lundin is a heavyweight match up at the faceoff dot and will be instrumental in this game.  Christian Edwards for the Hokies and Jack Baird for the Wolverines are both high end defensemen and worth watching.  It was Edwards who made the play in overtime essentially covering two guys at once to force the turnover that led to the game winning goal for the Hokies.  Jack Baird has been a topflight MCLA defenseman since he stepped on campus in Orem.  The Hokies’ offense has been streaky of late, alternately red hot or loose with the ball.  Wolverine attackman Tyson Mauri has had seven points in each game this week.  Patrick Thomas for the Wolverines is saving over 67% of the shots he has faced this season and gives the Wolverine defense plenty of confidence.   Virginia Tech has faced a ten-man ride this season, but it will be interesting to see how they handle Utah Valley’s version.  Clemson played man-to-man against Utah Valley and the Wolverines looked very comfortable as opposed to Monday against Oregon’s zone.  Virginia Tech also runs a man-to-man defense as their base, but might be more amenable to switching to a zone if the Wolverines are carving up their base.  Utah Valley wants to put pressure on their opponents all over the field and typically the best way to face that is to attack that pressure rather than running away from it.  The Hokies have the personnel to attack the pressure, but will they have the stomach for it?  The answer to that question will go a long way toward determining the outcome of the game.  FAN PICK: Virginia Tech (56%)

Buckle up because we should have four great semifinal games.