Preview: Make or Break?

Photo by Lance Wendt

  By: E.J. Freeman | MCLA.us    

ATLANTA- It’s that time of year, Spring Break season.  Being an increasingly grumpy and old man, my question about Spring Break would be: what exactly do college students need a break from?  I think most working stiffs would gladly take a Spring Break from their daily grind to spend a week living the life of a college student.  However, that’s a different conversation for a different place.

Every program has a different approach to Spring Break in our league and each one has its own issues and positives.  Some teams take a trip through Spring Break as it allows them to stack some games during the week that they otherwise could not play.  This has happened this week, while Michigan State was out in California and Boston College headed for the Rockies.  These are programs that deal with some tricky climate dynamics for the early portion of lacrosse season so playing through Spring Break makes a ton of sense.  This approach while necessary for many programs would likely be a tough sell at others.  Other programs will take the entire break off leaving a sizable gap in their schedule while they have back-to-back idle weekends.  This gives the students the most freedom and allows them to fully enjoy their break, but in this man’s opinion does not bode well for team performance.  It becomes very easy to come up with practice conflicts when you do not have a game for two straight weekends sandwiching Spring Break travel.  Now, as a coach you are likely to end up with your team, or large portions of it, taking almost two full weeks off right in the heart of the season.  I do not believe any coach thinks that is ideal for performance.  The middle of the road approach is often to have a game on Friday or Saturday of that first weekend of Spring Break and allow players to embark to places unknown after that.  This limits the time off to only one week and also allows players to experience their Spring Break an in era where it seems that many people view Spring Break travel as their birthright.

Because of the differences between programs there is no right or wrong answer to the question of Spring Break, it is simply a reality that we in the MCLA must work through that our varsity counterparts do not. How your team handles it can have a massive impact on your season.  For teams that travel, if you can stack a few out of conference wins, all of a sudden your at-large resume is looking pretty strong.  If those same teams struggle on their trip, does morale suffer as kids wonder why they gave up Spring Break?  For those that take two idle weekends maybe your team comes back refreshed and all those bumps and bruises have healed as you head into the meat of the conference season.  Maybe that long layoff leads to rust that the team just cannot seem to shake off as they play the most meaningful games of their season.  If you play a game on the front end, there is a chance that you have split the difference of these approaches and your team makes it through Spring Break without losing focus or getting ground down.  At the same time, maybe your team is eyeing their post-game travel plans and overlooks the game at hand and ends up with a loss in a game they should win that comes back to bite them either in the standings or on selection Sunday. 

The question of Spring Break does not have a clear and identifiable answer, but each team must figure out what makes sense for them and hope that whatever they choose does not break their season.

Now, on to the weekend at hand.  This week’s guest picker is Ethan Zwickey, 2024 MCLA Division II National Champion and Player of the Year and former Montana State goalie.  Ethan has a tall task ahead of him as Ryan Kerr went 5-0 last weekend to take over the top spot on the leaderboard.  Thanks to Ethan for taking the time and giving us his picks and analysis.

#4 Montana State at #10 College of Idaho 6pm Friday – Ethan can exhale a little for this one as the guest picker jinx was broken last week by Florida Atlantic.  His beloved Bobcats better not relax though.  College of Idaho has rolled through their schedule so far.  I was interested to see how they handled playing Denver whose record does not reflect how good they are based on who they have played so far. The Yotes took a quarter or so to adjust to new level of resistance before winning 13-3.  The Bobcats meanwhile have tested themselves and acquitted themselves quite well with their only losses coming to the top ranked teams in the country at the moment.  The Yotes are winning over 70% of their faceoffs as a team while the Bobcats sit below 50%.  I’m sure lead Bobcat Chris Kelley has a plan to combat a potential possession disadvantage and I’m curious to see what it is. 

Fan Pick  (as of press time): College of Idaho(78%)

Ethan’s Estimation: College of Idaho is off to an incredibly hot start, going 6-0 and averaging 20 goals a game. Although the Cat's have dropped 2 games, they have had a gauntlet to start the season, and are battle tested. I refuse to bet against the Cats, especially with the leadership and experience that this group has. Reese Loucks continues to be a matchup nightmare, and Knickerbocker stands on his head to get the Bobcats another big time road win in this one.  PICK: Montana State

Dayton at Rhode Island 10am Saturday – The Flyers and Rams do not have a lot of games under their belt so there is likely to be a feeling out period in this game.  Each team will enter just trying to do what they do as well as they can with no real scouting information available.  It has been a couple years since these two teams have seen each other as well.  Which team can get up and running first? 

Fan Pick: Rhode Island (67%)

Ethan’s Estimation:  Not the easiest pick of this week, with a matchup between two teams that have played a combined three games so far. Should be a fun match up, as there are still a lot of unknowns between these two. Your ability to bounce back from some early season mistakes is largely dependent on if the group of guys have been there before, and because of that, I am taking Rhode Island and their 7 seniors to will their way to a win at home.  PICK: Rhode Island

#20 Simon Fraser vs #2 Brigham Young (in Boise) 1pm Saturday – Here we have a classic MCLA game between Simon Fraser and Brigham Young.  You might be able to call it rivalry based solely on the amount of history between the two teams.  Obviously, this is a bittersweet meeting with the recent news about Simon Fraser’s program, but hopefully the Red Leafs are able to come up with a work around and keep playing in the MCLA.  The Cougars have been on a dominant run this season since their 15-11 season opening win over Arizona State.  The Red Leafs dropped a tough game to UC Santa Barbara, but otherwise have had strong showings.  The Cougars have won the last two games in this series, but their offensive output in those games has been below their usually gaudy figures.  The Red Leafs bring their Canadian style and flair, which will surely require an adjustment period.

Fan Pick: Brigham Young (65%)

Ethan’s Estimation: I always rooted for SFU growing up, having a Canadian team in our league is one of the coolest parts of the MCLA, and I hate that this is their last season. I will continue to root for SFU in the PNCLL, however, Ryan Kerr put me in a tough spot with his 5-0 record. BYU has been a force for the last few seasons, and I don't expect that to change this year. BYU wins this match up to continue their impressive start to the season.  PICK: Brigham Young

#14 San Diego State at #9 Arizona 1pm Saturday – The fans in Tucson seem to be counting the mentions of their Wildcats in this space.  The Wildcats are undefeated and you can only beat the teams in front of you, but their opponents are a combined 10-20.  Things ramp up a bit when Arizona welcomes the Aztecs who are riding a bit of a heater after dropping their first two games of the season.  In what will be a theme this week, there is a significant faceoff discrepancy coming into this one.  The Aztecs are at 35% as a team, which to be honest makes their 4-2 record more impressive.  That’s quite a hole to start from.  Arizona, however, is winning draws at a 76% clip.  San Diego State has to figure out how to overcome that discrepancy otherwise this one could get away from them.  

Fan Pick: Arizona (70%)

Ethan’s Estimation: Both teams have looked solid, SDSU had a tough couple match-ups to start but have proven that they are going to be an SLC contender. UofA has had some good wins, but this will be a big test for a conference match-up. I think the Cats win this one at home, and Duece Bechtold makes an early statement for SLC newcomer of the year on a huge performance.  PICK: Arizona

#16 San Diego at #11 UC San Diego 7pm  Saturday - A classic public vs private battle in San Diego.  The Tritons have gotten the better of the Toreros lately, but this is a rivalry game and anything can happen.  This has the makings of a defensive slugfest with neither team lighting up the scoreboard so far this season.  In a game where goals may be at a premium does an 85% faceoff win rate give the Toreros the edge?  If San Diego can dominate faceoffs and capitalize on the possessions things could escalate quickly.

Fan Pick: 50/50

Ethan’s Estimation: In addition to having his teams be a nationals mainstay in the 2020's, Albert Man is one of the MCLA's best representatives, I always looked forward to the matchups against his teams. This cross-town matchup has a chance to put the tritons in upset territory, as they have the bitter rivals the following week, not to mention a deeper and improved USD team this week. I think this is a close one, but UCSD eventually pulls out the win due to some key stops out of Gulbrandsen.  PICK: UCSD

Other Games I’ll be Watching

Auburn at #4 South Carolina 4:30pm Friday – The Tigers are playing a fast and furious brand of ball and to my eye are being undervalued in the poll.  Graham Young and Declan Tobin are a strong 1-2 punch on offense for the Tigers.  Aidan Garrett has been mostly dominant this season at the faceoff dot and Colson Miller has been a steadying force between the pipes.  The Tigers have found their footing after a stumble in the opening weekend.  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are recovering from their first loss of the season at the hands of Liberty.  Nathan Wolfe will be looking to feed the bevy of South Carolina shooters as they work against  disciplined Auburn defense.  The past few matchups have not been close between these teams, but this one feels different.

Fan Pick: South Carolina (72%)

#8 Texas Christian at #17 Oregon 1pm Saturday – The Horned Frogs take their top-10 ranking on the road to Eugene. The Horned Frogs are struggling at the dot, but it did not seem to be an issue against Colorado who has one of the top draw men in the country.  How long can you whistle past the graveyard facing off at less than 40%?  Reigning PEARL Goalie of the Week Cooper Coleman certainly helps with that disparity.  The Ducks have been a prolific offense in every game not played in the state of Utah so far.  Can they find their groove again after the 0-2 swing through the Beehive?  If so, the Ducks are dangerous as they have a deep group of scorers on offense that all command attention.

Fan Pick: Texas Christian (62%)

#7 Florida State at #3 Liberty 12pm Sunday – This one lost a little luster when the Seminoles lost to Auburn last week, but it is still a top-10 matchup and will lose a little more if Florida State loses to Virginia Tech on Friday.  The Flames have been burning quietly and flying somewhat under the radar given what they graduated from last year and the somewhat slow schedule early.  With South Carolina and Florida State back to back, the Flames are in it now.  These two teams, despite being former SELC foes, have not played since 2017.  Florida State won only 35% of the faceoffs against Auburn, which seems to be the recipe for slowing down the Seminoles.  The only other game in which the Noles were under 60% was their overtime win against Georgia Tech.  The lack of possession seemed to affect Florida State last week as they struggled to have much rhythm offensively.  Can the Noles get back to dominating possession against the Flames?  If so, the Noles can score with anyone.  Can the Flames force Florida State to win faceoffs backward and then spring their ten-man ride to steal some possessions?  On the other end, can Jack Schiffl matchup with Easton Cahill who is adept at using his mountainous frame to create separation for himself?

Fan Pick: Liberty (100%)

Central Michigan at Missouri State 6pm Friday – The Chippewas and the reigning PEARL Goalie of the Week head to Springfield after a 2-1 weekend against Division I opponents.  This is an interesting matchup between two teams looking to make a little more noise in their conferences this season.  Can the Bears solve the riddle of Michael Fett in cage?

Fan Pick: Central Michigan (83%)

#3 Air Force at #13 Texas Tech 3pm Saturday – The Red Raiders have been coasting so far, but welcome the Falcons to Lubbock this weekend.  The Falcons will not beat themselves and have been tested against some of the nation’s best so far.  How will the upstart Red Raiders handle the uptick in competition?  The Red Raiders’ transition from Division III to Division II has been impressive and they can really turn heads if they can ground Air Force over the weekend. 

Fan Pick:  Texas Tech (82%)

#18 Western Washington at #10 College of Idaho 11:30am Sunday – A Sunday morning faceoff the day the clocks change is a tall order.  Pitting two ranked teams against each other in that situation will test their resiliency.  Western Washington plays Montana State the day before, but both teams will be rubbing sleep from their eyes as they start warm-ups for this one.  Here’s hoping both teams set two alarms for Sunday morning.    The two teams have split their last two games with neither being close,  I bet this one is closer.

Fan Pick: College of Idaho (100%)

As always, head coaches get your nominations for Warrior Player of the Week and PEARL Goalie of the Week to info@mcla.us by noon local time.